Russian oil is flowing in secretive ship transfers on the high-seas. Here’s what that means for global energy markets.

Ahoy and TGIF, mateys! Phil Rosen here — I’m so glad to be back with you to ring in the final edition of the week.

In a change of pace, today we have quite a bit to catch up on from the high seas. 

Say — do you know any pirate jokes? Luckily for everyone, neither do AYEE. 

Okay, let’s get to business. 

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The UK and EU have agreed to ban insurance for Russian oil cargoes, reports said.

1. An unknown Chinese merchant spent $376 million on 13 cargo ships for risky transfers of Russian oil out in the mid-Atlantic, according to maritime intelligence site Lloyd’s List.

Since each vessel is more than 15 years old, they are likely beyond the charter of traditional oil companies and lacking conventional financing — which points to a very cash-rich mystery owner.

These dicey, furtive oil moves have happened at an increased clip since Russia invaded Ukraine. It’s one way for buyers to try and avoid affiliation with Moscow — which they also do via “dark” transfers and marking cargoes “destination unknown” to obscure their origin.

While sanctions have led Russian barrels to disappear from European markets, Uncle Sam has picked up the slack. 

But shipping crude from the US to Europe now costs 12 times more than the start of 2022.

And it’s not as if Russia’s output isn’t high enough — the IEA reported Thursday that Moscow’s oil production actually far exceeds expectations because countries like China and India have been such willing buyers. 

The chaos in energy markets has aggravated a worsening energy crunch in Europe, which the IEA said will lead to a surge in oil demand before the end of the year.

The crisis is prompting some European companies to switch from gas to oil for power generation, which will accelerate demand, pressure prices, and exacerbate the already-concerning trajectory of the continent. 

In other news:

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A Ukrainian military helicopter hovers during an exhibition in the Kyiv Region, November 8, 2021.

2. US stock futures rise early Friday, but bonds fell as investors weighed up the Fed’s response to cooling inflation. Here are the latest market moves.

3. On the docket: EnBW, Celltrion Inc, and ONGC Ltd., all reporting.

4. This senior equity strategist at UBS said inflation is still problematic, but there are still ways to protect your money. The CPI data probably peaked in July, Nadia Lovell said, but that doesn’t mean the economy or your money is in the clear. This simple, two-part investing strategy can help investors navigate the current landscape.

5. BlackRock said it will offer clients spot bitcoin exposure. The announcement for US institutional clients comes a week after partnering with Coinbase — and while many investors remain spooked about the ongoing crypto winter. 

6. The market rally on the back of July’s CPI reading may be “too euphoric,” DataTrek analysts said Thursday. Investors should be wary of diving back into what could still be a bear market, as not everything on the inflation front is resolved. In the firm’s view, markets may be getting ahead of themselves with excitement.

7. Russia now controls at least $12.4 trillion worth of Ukraine’s energy, metal, and mineral deposits. According to an analysis by the Washington Post and SecDev, Moscow commands a massive volume of the smaller nation’s resources. If the Kremlin succeeds in annexing the Ukrainian land seized during the invasion, Kyiv would permanently lose almost two-thirds of its key deposits.

8. Goldman Sachs said home price growth is likely to slow down dramatically for the rest of this year and next. Analysts have forecasted a 9.4% year-over-year home price growth for 2022 — but most of that growth has already happened. Here’s why prices could actually drop before the new year hits.

9. These financial experts said you don’t have to choose between paying off your debt and investing. Today Show financial editor Jean Chatzky and Crush your Money Goals founder Bernadette Joy Cruz broke down their best tips for how to do both at the same time — and start a path toward financial freedom.

10. Declining gas prices helped ease July’s CPI reading even as inflation remains hot. The CPI rose 8.5% year-over-year, Wednesday data showed, and tumbling prices at the pump accounted for much of the slowdown. However, gas prices remain more than 25% higher than a year ago.

Keep up with the latest markets news throughout your day by checking out The Refresh from Insider, a dynamic audio news brief from the Insider newsroom. Listen here.

Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email [email protected] or tweet @philrosenn).

 Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London. 

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