People walk past a "now hiring" sign posted outside of a restaurant in Arlington, Virginia on June 3, 2022.
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The July non-farm payrolls report is set to be released on Friday, August 5 at 8:30 a.m. The report arrives ahead of July’s Consumer Price Index reading, set to be published on Wednesday, August 10. Together, the two reports will paint a crucial picture of the US economy that has technically entered a recession after the second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth.
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Inflation hurts, but we’re in real trouble when people can’t get a job
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Joblessness, not inflation, is the biggest threat to the economy, some experts say.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has frequently pointed to the labor market’s strength as a sign that the economy can shoulder the burden of higher rates, but the central bank is walking a tightrope in its fight against inflation. The odds of a recession are rising among many Wall Street analysts.
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Workers aren’t acting like we’re in a recession — more than 4 million quit their jobs in June
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In June, 4.2 million people quit their jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
At the same time, hiring wasn’t slowing down: 6.4 million Americans were hired in June, and the layoff rate stayed low at 0.9%. That means that, even as some do see layoffs and hiring slowdowns, workers for the most part aren’t worried about walking away from their jobs.
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The US could be heading for a recession. That’s great news for stocks.
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The economy is shrinking, and Americans increasingly fear a recession is either on the horizon or already here. Yet the stock market is positively thriving.
The S&P 500 was up over 9% in July, staging its biggest one-month rally since 2020. Investors are trying to regain its footing after a brutal first half of the year, but economists stress that the market is not the economy and warn that data still shows an uncomfortably hight likeliehood of a recession.
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