Mortgage rates have been volatile in recent weeks as the push and pull of inflation and a possible recession continues.
This week, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release July’s consumer price index data. This is a closely watched gauge of inflation, and will likely have an impact on where mortgage rates will go in the near future.
As inflation has increased, so have mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve has been raising the federal funds rate to try to slow price growth, and July’s CPI numbers will help tell us if the central bank has made any progress toward that goal.
The fear is that if the Fed has to raise rates more aggressively to bring inflation down, it could trigger a recession. This uncertainty has caused mortgage rates to trend down over the past couple of weeks.
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Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.
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Are mortgage rates going up?
Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and have increased significantly so far in 2022. More recently, rates have been relatively volatile.
In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 9.1%. The Federal Reserve has been working to get inflation under control, and plans to increase the federal funds target rate three more times this year, following increases in March, May, June, and July.
Though not directly tied to the federal funds rate, mortgage rates are sometimes pushed up as a result of Fed rate hikes and investor expectations of how those hikes will impact the economy. If inflation remains elevated, mortgage rates may stay at their current levels or even trend up. But as a recession becomes more likely, mortgage rates could fall.
What do high rates mean for the housing market?
When mortgage rates go up, home shoppers’ buying power decreases, as more of their anticipated housing budget has to go toward paying interest. If rates get high enough, buyers can get priced out of the market completely, which cools demand and puts downward pressure on home price growth.
However, that doesn’t mean home prices will fall — in fact, they’re expected to rise even more this year, just at a slower pace than what we’ve seen in the past couple of years.
What is a good mortgage rate?
It can be hard to know if a lender is offering you a good rate, which is why it’s so important to get preapproved with multiple mortgage lenders and compare each offer. Apply for preapproval with at least two or three lenders.
Your rate isn’t the only thing that matters. Be sure to compare both what your monthly costs would be as well as your upfront costs, including any lender fees.
Even though mortgage rates are heavily influenced by economic factors that are out of your control, there are some things you can do to help ensure you get a good rate:
Consider fixed vs. adjustable rates. You may be able to get a lower introductory rate with an adjustable-rate mortgage, which can be good if you plan to move before the intro period ends. But a fixed rate could be better if you’re buying a forever home because you won’t risk your rate going up later. Look at the rates your lender offers and weigh your options.Look at your finances. The stronger your financial situation, the lower your mortgage rate should be. Look for ways to boost your credit score or lower your debt-to-income ratio, if necessary. Saving for a higher down payment also helps.Choose the right lender. Each lender charges different mortgage rates. Picking the right one for your financial situation will help you land a good rate.